{"id":3065,"date":"2024-10-22T03:17:27","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T03:17:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/donald-trump-has-to-love-this-news\/"},"modified":"2024-10-22T03:17:27","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T03:17:27","slug":"donald-trump-has-to-love-this-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/donald-trump-has-to-love-this-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump Has to Love This News"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Republicans should keep the champagne on ice until the election results are official and act like we\u2019re trailing due to the institutional goliaths we\u2019re facing this election cycle\u2014but one thing cannot be denied: we\u2019re in good shape to win the election. It\u2019s not over, but Joe Biden had a seven-point advantage over Trump in 2024. There\u2019s no pandemic. And Kamala Harris is irritating everyone. Even the most ardent Trump-hater cannot deny that the former president is polling better than ever. While it\u2019s a tight race, Trump has reclaimed the advantage<\/a> in Nate Silver\u2019s Electoral College projection<\/a>:\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\ud83d\udea8BREAKING: Nate Silver just added three points to Trump\u2019s winning probability.<\/p>\n

Officially passing Kamala Harris in his model. pic.twitter.com\/By7rWE2tUz<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u2014 Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 17, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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The Electoral College race remains as close to 50\/50 as it gets. But with some good polls for Trump entering our database today, like a 2-point lead in a high-quality national poll and a big lead in Georgia (though he trails in North Carolina in the same Quinnipiac poll), if you squint at the probabilities, you\u2019ll see Trump 50.2%, Harris 49.5%. (There\u2019s an 0.3% chance of a 269-269 tie).\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not much different from yesterday\u2019s forecast of Harris 50.3%, Trump 49.4%. But however nominal, it\u2019s Trump\u2019s first lead in our model since Sept. 19. There\u2019s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Kamala Harris\u2019 stock has only gone down since her media blitz. She lost five points in a month to Trump in NBC News\u2019 latest poll. Her favorability also took a near-10-point dip. She\u2019s massively underwater among core Democratic voter groups. It\u2019s not looking good, and we\u2019re thankful that Harris is an abysmal candidate who could never answer basic questions, like how she\u2019d be different than Joe Biden.<\/p>\n

Silver\u2019s explanation of whether Trump has momentum is couched in elliptical language, as he covers all the bases. However, he did not know that the blue wall is where Trump is no longer an underdog<\/a>. That has to make Democrats nervous:\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Recommended<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n
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That\u2019s not much different from Trump\u2019s 49.4 percent chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line \u2014 and above Harris\u2019s chances, which are 49.5 percent1 \u2014 for the first time since Sept. 19. (Harris remains a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the popular vote, but that\u2019s not how American elections are decided.)\u00a0<\/p>\n

[\u2026]\u00a0<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve already used the \u201cm-word\u201d twice \u2014 momentum \u2014 without formally defining it, and the formal definition is important. Does the fact that Trump\u2019s chances have increased from 42 percent to 50 percent imply that they\u2019ll continue to increase? Hold that thought, though, because I think I owe you a rundown of where Trump\u2019s odds have improved. There are some pretty consistent patterns at the state level:\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s basically the Blue Wall states. Trump has gone from being almost a 2:1 underdog in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at his nadir to close to 50\/50 now. Outside of the Blue Wall (and Florida) the changes are incremental. But the Blue Wall states have a combined 61 percent chance of being the tipping-point state, so they really take a bite out of Harris\u2019s Electoral College chances. The closest thing to a bright spot for Harris is North Carolina, which has surpassed Wisconsin in tipping-point odds and could give Harris an out if she loses one of the Blue Wall states (but probably not more than one of them).\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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538 just flipped; now Trump 52, Harris 48 https:\/\/t.co\/PhUC7PmiLl<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/WGYo856RwN<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 JgaltTweets (@JgaltTweets) October 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Democrats thought Kamala would trounce Trump\u2014she isn\u2019t. With reports of a shambolic operation in Pennsylvania, the Blue Wall is looking vulnerable again. If the polls are off gauging the Trump vote, as in 2016 and 2020, then overperforming by one point leads to a Trump win. Biden was ahead of Trump by seven points four years ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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CNN data guru declares Trump will win White House if he outperforms current polling by one point | Fox News<\/p>\n

‘This is a truly exciting race right now, where any slight movement can make all the difference,’ CNN’s Harry Enten said on Friday pic.twitter.com\/iyLbZnJTnl<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u2014 Owen Gregorian (@OwenGregorian) September 7, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It\u2019s why Joe Biden and Barack Obama seemed so despondent at Ethel Kennedy\u2019s funeral this week. Both men know this isn\u2019t an ideal position. The only question is whether Trump can close the deal and whether there will be any shenanigans when the ballots are counted. It’s not over, but Trump is in much better shape heading into Election Day.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The Kamala Campaign is getting desperate. pic.twitter.com\/m7RKJr85z5<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Townhall.com (@townhallcom) October 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

UPDATE<\/strong>: The joy is dead.<\/p>\n

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Kamala is screaming her head off at this rally rn. The internal poll numbers can’t be looking good. pic.twitter.com\/CzBsC6K6UL<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) October 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Harris campaign status: Clinton & Obama flopped. Fox interview was rough. Empty on immigration & economy. And she\u2019s angered the Catholics. Woof. Discussed on @cnn<\/a> last night. pic.twitter.com\/fmAUnho1aY<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) October 18, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Republicans should keep the champagne on ice until the election results are official and act like we\u2019re trailing due to the institutional goliaths we\u2019re facing this election cycle\u2014but one thing cannot be denied: we\u2019re in good shape to win the election. It\u2019s not over, but Joe Biden had a seven-point advantage over Trump in 2024.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2185],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trump-election-news"],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/media.townhall.com\/cdn\/hodl\/2024\/288\/e94703df-3989-4a33-aa24-e914098bd37a.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3065\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nine9ja.com\/hi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}